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谨防TD-LTE重走TD老路:仅凭中国市场规难支撑

2012-02-09
作者:马晓芳
来源:CCTIME
关键词: TD-LTE TD

国际电信联盟(ITU)一则决议似乎被春节气氛给遮了。那就是4G标准的确定。

ITU网站消息说,1月20日,国际电联2012年无线电通信全会全体会议正式审议通过3大4G标准,即LTE-Advanced、Wireless MAN-Advanced(802.16m)、TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" 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title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" 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title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE" title="TD-LTE">TD-LTE。其中,IEEE 802.16m正是WiMax的后续标准。

TD-LTE是基于中国自主知识产权TD-SCDMA的4G技术标准,经政府、运营商、设备商等多年努力终于跻身4G标准行列。2011年初,中移动已在广州、上海、杭州等6城进行规模技术试验,去年底开始二期试验。中移动介绍,按目前结果,TD-LTE关键技术和性能指标基本符合理论预期,技术成熟可用,与LTE FDD商用网络性能相当。

公开场合,中移动高管言必称TD-LTE对国际运营商具有吸引力,TD-LTE在国际市场红红火火。

不过,实际上,TD-LTE商用化进程和市场规模严重落后于LTE FDD。截至去年底,全球51个LTE商用网络中,LTE FDD占46个,且Verizon、AT&T等巨头参与其中,Verizon甚至已有150万智能手机用户。而TD-LTE仅5个商用网络,运营商规模较小,商用网络建设明显落后。目前许多国际知名企业更倾向于FDD。

中国自主创新能走多远?3G时代,基于FDD的WCDMA和CDMA2000技术一直统领3G产业,而源于中国的TD-SCMDA因商用进程晚、产业能力薄弱,目前已不太可能在全球大规模发展。

TD-LTE被认为是中国首次有机会在全球市场实现超越的寄托。不过,商用进程速度更快的LTE FDD、卷土重来的WiMax都在争夺全球市场和产业资源。

TD-LTE的时间已不多。如果发展不力,TD-LTE很可能成为第二个TD-SCDMA。无论有关部门与机构认为它多么成功,但消费者的认知有较大反差。归根结底,这仍只是一个难以走出国门的“中国的标准”,凭借中国市场规模艰难支撑产业链。

如果没有4G标准与中国市场概念,TD-LTE恐怕很难吸引设备商、芯片商及其他海外巨头投身进来。但最终它的未来也很有可能是“自娱自乐”,之前的积累与付出都将化为泡影。而更严重的是,那些投入巨资、紧密跟随的本土相关企业可能还会心痛一次。

笔者获悉,相关部门对TD-LTE也有一定顾虑。比如,是否可能造成TD-SCDMA投资浪费?在3G发展不久,上马4G有无必要?还有,现有运营商市场是否再被打破,以致电信改革努力前功尽弃?

市场机遇稍纵即逝,如何权衡和取舍,这将考验相关部门与产业界的智慧。

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